Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Dowd over Weaver
My ballot: Come back next week!
The nominees: Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

This category frustrates me because, with the except of Hathaway’s musical moment and Hunt’s strong turn, whose inclusion only makes costar John Hawkes’ snub sting all the more, this does not represent the best work of any of the other actresses in this category. That’s most true of Weaver, who was terrific in a motherly role in “Animal Kingdom” two years ago that earned her a nomination. This role doesn’t even compare, and just adds to the absurdly high nomination total for the decent “Silver Linings Playbook” – eight – which includes every acting category and also directing and editing, two places it shouldn’t have shown up. Weaver just doesn’t have the material or the role to stack up to the rest of her cast. Adams does her best but it’s not nearly as good as, say, “Junebug” or “The Fighter,” and I recognize that I wasn’t impressed with Field’s performance but others were. I’m sad that Ann Dowd couldn’t crack the list for “Compliance,” and I’m not in as much of a rush to see “The Paperboy” anymore now that Globe and SAG nominee Nicole Kidman didn’t make the cut. SAG nominee Maggie Smith may have a blast at that awards ceremony and the Globes, but “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” didn’t earn a single nomination today.

My current bet to win: It’s going to be Hathaway.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking DiCaprio over Arkin
My ballot: Come back next week!
The nominees: Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

It turns out that this race was an amalgam of the Globe and SAG lists, tossing aside Waltz’s costar Leonardo DiCaprio and Javier Bardem from “Skyfall,” whose film earned the most Oscar nominations ever for a James Bond entry. That means that we’re left with five previous winners, four of whom won in this very category. The only actor marooned without a Best Picture nomination is Hoffman, and he’s also the only nominee in this race under fifty. I have a few inclusions I’d put in, but these are all strong performances, and a generally consistent category.

My current bet to win: They’ve all won before, so it could be any of them, but I think it will be Jones.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Cotillard over Watts
My ballot: Come back next week!
The nominees: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

The two first-time factors I was worried about – two Globe and SAG nominees snubbed and the presence of both an 85-year-old and a 9-year-old – turned out not to be a problem; I just backed the wrong other horse. That’s unfortunate for Marion Cotillard, who was excellent in “Rust and Bone,” making room for Watts, whose film is nowhere to be found anywhere else today. While I love Watts, I think the film was much more about its visuals and technical aspects than its acting. The other four films in this category are up for Best Picture, thanks to a groundswell of support for “Amour” and a greater affection than expected for Lawrence and Wallis’ films. Stick around for further analysis on other categories on that note. Had Cotillard been here instead of Watts, I would have labeled this a stellar list.

My current bet to win: I’d say it could be anyone but Watts, but what do I know? I think Lawrence got a major bump from her film’s nomination performance.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Hawkes over Jackman
My ballot: Come back next week!
The nominees: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Denzel Washington (Flight)

This category was hardly the most surprising (we’ll get to that, don’t worry) but it still represented, for me, one of the most egregious snubs of the year. John Hawkes gave one of the most wonderful performances I’ve seen in a while in “The Sessions,” a film that earned only costar Hunt a mention. He was certainly more on that Jackman, who I didn’t love, and Cooper and Phoenix, both of whom were pretty good but not the strongest in their films, and, if I had my way, he would have pulled an upset on Day-Lewis and Washington. Based on how well “Amour” did, I wouldn’t have been surprised to see Jean-Louis Trintignant here either, but, oh well, the enormous shocks were saved for other races.

My current bet to win: This is definitely Day-Lewis.

Final Oscar Predictions

Everything is happening out of order this year, but of course, we knew that was going to happen. Oscar nominations are being unveiled tomorrow morning before the Golden Globes ceremony occurs on Sunday evening, which means both that we won’t know who got a surprise boost and that certain winners may not in fact get that boost since voting obviously closes before then. Still, we know a lot, and it’s that eight films look reliably solid for Best Picture, and that “Beasts of the Southern Wild” and “Skyfall” were the other two choices by the PGA. I’m predicting exactly one nomination for the latter, looking purely at historical Bond treatment by Oscar, while I expect (and sincerely hope) that the former will fare well. The one major contender I still haven’t seen is Nicole Kidman in “The Paperboy,” so perhaps I’m being unwise by discounting her chances, but I do think that Ann Dowd can break through for “Compliance,” if not necessarily at her expense. I’d love to see a surge of support for “The Dark Knight Rises” and some technical mentions, about which I’m still uneasy, for “Prometheus” and “The Avengers.” As always, I’m hopeful for a few good surprises and no bad ones. I’m not planning to get up as early as Oscar nominations will be announced since I’m now on the West Coast, but I will be up in the morning as I always am on nominations day bringing you analysis by category on the half-hour. Click on category headings for full predictions in each race. Chime in below with your thoughts and predictions, and check back tomorrow for plenty of reactions!

No guts, no glory predictions:
Michael Fassbender for Best Supporting Actor for “Prometheus”
Jean-Louis Trintignant for Best Actor for “Amour”
“The Dark Knight Rises” for Best Picture

Best Picture
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Director
Ben Affleck (Argo)
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Denzel Washington (Flight)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone)
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (The Master)
Ann Dowd (Compliance)
Sally Field (Lincoln)
Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)

Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Lincoln
The Sessions
Silver Linings Playbook

Best Cinematography
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Les Miserables
Life of PI
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Art Direction
Anna Karenina
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln

Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Argo
The Hobbit
Les Miserables
Lincoln

Best Film Editing
Argo
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Score
Anna Karenina
Brave
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Original Song
“For You” (Act of Valor)
“Suddenly” (Les Miserables)
“Pi’s Lullaby” (Life of Pi)
“Still Alive” (Paul Williams: Still Alive)
“Skyfall” (Skyfall)

Best Sound Argo
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Sound Editing
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Zero Dark Thirty

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Hobbit
Les Miserables
Lincoln

Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit
Life of Pi
Prometheus

Best Animated Feature
Brave
Frankenweenie
The Rabbi’s Cat
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph

Best Documentary Short Film
Education of Mohammed Hussein
Inocente
Kings Point
Mondays at Racine
Paraiso

Best Animated Short Film
Adam and Dog
Dripped
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Paperman

Best Live Action Short Film
A Fabrica
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Kiruna-Kigali
Salar

Best Documentary
How to Survive a Plague
The Invisible War
Mea Maxima Culpa: Silence in the House of God
Searching for Sugar Man
This Is Not a Film

Best Foreign Language Film
Amour
Beyond the Hills
The Intouchables
No
A Royal Affair

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Les Miserables, Moonrise Kingdom, Salmon Fishing in the Yemen, Silver Linings Playbook

For your information: Both “Les Miserables” and “Silver Linings Playbook” have four nominations, “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen” has three, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel” has two, and “Moonrise Kingdom” is nominated only here. Musicals win this race sometimes but not all the time. “The Artist” won last year.

Who should win? “Moonrise Kingdom”

Who will win? It could be “Silver Linings Playbook,” but I think that Les Miserables will prevail.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Argo, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty

For your information: All of these films are nominated for Best Director as well. Ben Affleck is the only filmmaker new to this race. “Lincoln” has seven nominations, “Argo” and “Django Unchained” each have five, “Zero Dark Thirty” has four, and “Life of Pi” has three. The winner of this prize has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar only twice in the last decade.

Who should win? “Zero Dark Thirty,” though I’d be fine with “Argo” too.

Who will win? In a tight race between “Argo” and “Lincoln,” I choose Argo.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition: Ben Affleck (Argo), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)

For your information: There are two serious heavyweights in this category. This is the eleventh nomination for Spielberg, who won in 1993 for “Schindler’s List” and in 1998 for “Saving Private Ryan.” Though he’s only on his fourth nomination, Ang Lee has also won twice, in 2000 for “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and in 2005 for “Brokeback Mountain.” Tarantino has been nominated twice before and Bigelow once before. This is the first nomination for Affleck, but his chances are actually quite good, considering that this race has rewarded actors turned directors like Robert Redford, Warren Beatty, Richard Attenborough, Barbra Streisand, Clint Eastwood, Kevin Costner, and Mel Gibson.

Who should win? Affleck or Bigelow

Who will win? A tough call between first-timer Affleck and veteran Spielberg. I’ll opt for the actor.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition: Chris Terrio (Argo), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Tony Kushner (Lincoln), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty)

For your information: Kushner was nominated before for another Spielberg film, “Munich.” Boal and Tarantino competed against each other in 2009 for penning the scripts to “The Hurt Locker” and “Inglourious Basterds,” respectively. They lost to “Up in the Air.” Comedies rarely win this award. All five films in this race are nominated for the appropriate Best Motion Picture prize.

Who should win? “Zero Dark Thirty” or “Argo”

Who will win? This feels like the place to reward another aspect of Lincoln.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Foreign Language Film

The competition: Amour (Austria), A Royal Affair (Denmark), The Intouchables (France), Rust and Bone (France), Kon-Tiki (Norway)

For your information: It’s hard to tabulate statistics by country since multiple countries are sometimes credited for a given film. Relevant to recent history, France has won eight times, Denmark twice, and Austria once. This is the first nomination for Norway. Having multiple films from one country nominated doesn’t usually diminish the chances of that country winning. Michael Haneke, director of “Amour,” and Jacques Audiard, director of “Rust and Bone,” are the only returning nominees. In 2009, they were up against each other, and Haneke won, for “The White Ribbon.” The only film in this category nominated in any other race is “Rust and Bone,” which is up for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama.

Who should win? I’ve only seen “Amour,” but it’s a strong choice.

Who will win? Either Amour or “The Intouchables.” Given that Haneke won recently, I’d give the former the edge.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Animated Feature Film

The competition: Brave, Frankenweenie, Hotel Transylvania, Rise of the Guardians, Wreck-It Ralph

For your information: This category has existed since 2006, and Pixar has won every year except for last year, when “The Adventures of Tintin” beat “Cars 2.” Both went on to be snubbed by Oscar. None of the films in this category are nominated for any other Globes.

Who should win? I’ve only seen “Brave” and “Frankenweenie” thus far – both great choices.

Who will win? It’s either Brave or “Frankenweenie.” With this group, I’ll give the edge to the former.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Song

The competition: “For You” by Monty Powell and Keith Urban (Act of Valor), “Safe and Sound” by T-Bone Burnett, Taylor Swift, John Paul White, and Joy Williams (The Hunger Games), “Suddenly” by Alain Boublil, Herbert Kretzmer, and Claude-Michel Schonberg (Les Miserables), “Skyfall” by Adele and Paul Epworth (Skyfall), “Not Running Anymore” by Jon Bon Jovi (Stand Up Guys)

For your information: Only two of the nominees in this category have been here before, each one, and they both won. T-Bone Burnett won in 2009 for “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart,” and Jon Bon Jovi won in 1990 for “Blaze of Glory” from “Young Guns II.” While many James Bond movies have been nominated over the years, no song from a franchise film has ever won in this category. The big statistic in this category is that, in the past ten years, seven of the winners have gone on to be snubbed by Oscar. That could prove useful in a reverse way on Thursday when Oscar nominations are announced, but it’s not terribly helpful.

Who should win? I actually like all of the nominees aside from “Suddenly,” which just doesn’t compare to any of the other music in “Les Miserables.” “Not Running Anymore” didn’t do as much for me, and I’m just coming around to the moody nature of “Skyfall.” I’d opt for “For You” over “Safe and Sound.”

Who will win? Probably Bon Jovi for “Not Running Anymore” – this race doesn’t correlate with any other categories.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Score

The competition: Anna Karenina (Dario Marianelli), Argo (Alexandre Desplat), Cloud Atlas (Reinheld Heil, Johnny Klimek, Tom Tykwer), Life of Pi (Mychael Danna), Lincoln (John Williams)

For your information: Williams is the most-nominated Globe composer ever, earning his twenty-second nomination this year. He has won four times, twice for Steven Spielberg collaborations (“Jaws” and “Star Wars”). Marianelli was nominated and won for another Joe Wright collaboration, “Atonement,” five years ago. Desplat is on his sixth nomination. He won in 2006 for “The Painted Veil.” This is the first nomination for Danna and for the “Cloud Atlas” team.

Who should win? Of this bunch, definitely “Anna Karenina.”

Who will win? I’d peg Williams’ Lincoln as the frontrunner.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The competition: Amy Adams’ dutiful cult wife (The Master), Sally Field’s Mary Todd Lincoln (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway’s suffering mother (Les Miserables), Helen Hunt’s sex therapist (The Sessions), and Nicole Kidman’s sexual presence (The Paperboy).

For your information: Field is the veteran in this race, now at eleven nominations. She has won twice – in 1979 for “Norma Rae” and in 1984 for “Places in the Heart.” Kidman has now earned ten nominations thanks to a TV bid for “Hemingway and Gellhorn” this year, and she has won three times before, for “To Die For” in 1995, “Moulin Rouge” in 2001, and “The Hours” in 2002. Hers is the only Globe-nominated performance that I have yet to see. Hunt was nominated six times and won three times for her TV performance on “Mad About You,” and has only ever been nominated for a film Globe once, which she won in 1997 for “As Good As It Gets.” Adams has now earned her fourth nomination in six years, and Hathaway is on her third in five.

Who should win? Hunt or Hathaway

Who will win? It’s definitely going to be Hathaway.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

The competition: Alan Arkin’s fiery producer (Argo), Leonardo DiCaprio’s plantation owner (Django Unchained), Philip Seymour Hoffman’s cult leader (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones’ idealistic politician (Lincoln), and Christoph Waltz’s bounty hunter (Django Unchained).

For your information: Every one of these actors has won a Globe before. DiCaprio is actually the most-nominated among them, earning his ninth nomination this year. He won in 2004 for “The Aviator.” Next is Arkin, now at six, who won on his first try back in 1966 for “The Russians Are Coming! The Russians Are Coming!” Hoffman also won on his first of four previous mentions, in 2005 for “Capote.” Jones is on nomination number four. He won this race in 1993 for “The Fugitive.” Waltz is the newest contender, winning this category when he contended for the first time three years ago for “Inglourious Basterds.” All but “The Master” are nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama. In the three times that two contenders from one film have been nominated in this category in the past twenty-five years, neither won.

Who should win? All fine choices. I like DiCaprio, Hoffman, or Waltz.

Who will win? It could easily be Waltz or DiCaprio, but I think it’s Jones’ turn.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Emily Blunt’s enthusiastic fisheries consultant (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen), Judi Dench’s retiring widow (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel), Jennifer Lawrence’s eccentric dancer (Silver Linings Playbook), Maggie Smith’s retired opera singer (Quartet), and Meryl Streep’s unhappy housewife (Hope Springs).

For your information: Streep has now earned a massive twenty-five nominations. She won last year for “The Iron Lady,” which marked her seventh victory. Also nominated this year for “Downton Abbey,” Smith is on her eleventh nomination. She has won twice, in 1978 and 1986, for “California Suite” and “A Room with a View,” respectively. Dench is on her tenth nomination, and won once before for her film work, in 1997 for “Mrs. Brown.” Blunt has been nominated three times before, and she won in 2006 for her performance in the TV movie “Gideon’s Daughter.” Lawrence was nominated once before, in 2010 for “Winter’s Bone.” “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,” “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen,” and “Silver Linings Playbook” are all nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical.

Who should win? Lawrence, though Smith was fun too

Who will win? If she can eclipse three veteran actresses, Lawrence will take it.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: Jack Black’s friendly homicidal mortician (Bernie), Bradley Cooper’s temperamental former substitute teacher (Silver Linings Playbook), Hugh Jackman’s Jean Valjean (Les Miserables), Ewan McGregor’s fisheries expert (Salmon Fishing in the Yemen), and Bill Murray’s Franklin Delano Roosevelt (Hyde Park on Hudson).

For your information: Four of these actors have been nominated before, almost exclusively in this category. Murray, the only winner, has three previous nominations and a win for “Lost in Translation.” Black was nominated before for “School of Rock,” Jackman for “Kate and Leopold,” and McGregor for “Moulin Rouge.” Cooper is a first-time nominee. “Les Miserables,” “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen,” and “Silver Linings Playbook” are all nominated for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical. In the past ten years, an actor from a musical has won this award five times.

Who should win? Black or Murray

Who will win? It’s either Cooper or Jackman, depending on whose film proves more popular with Globe voters. I’ll predict the latter.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Jessica Chastain’s determined CIA agent (Zero Dark Thirty), Marion Cotillard’s depressed amputee (Rust and Bone), Helen Mirren’s long-suffering wife (Hitchcock), Naomi Watts’ traumatized natural disaster survivor (The Impossible), and Rachel Weisz’s unhappy housewife (The Deep Blue Sea).

For your information: Chastain earned her first nomination last year for “The Help.” This is the third nomination for Cotillard, who won in 2007 for “La Vie en Rose.” This is the eleventh nomination for Mirren, who won her only film award in 2006 for “The Queen.” Weisz was nominated once before, and won, in 2005 for “The Constant Gardener.” Joining them is first-time nominee Watts. Only “Zero Dark Thirty” is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Who should win? Chastain or Cotillard

Who will win? I don’t see this going to anyone other than Chastain.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Daniel Day-Lewis’ Abraham Lincoln (Lincoln), Richard Gere’s frazzled financier (Arbitrage), John Hawkes’ curious man in an iron lung (The Sessions), Joaquin Phoenix’s easily manipulated lost soul (The Master), and Denzel Washington’s alcoholic pilot (Flight).

For your information: This is the seventh nomination for Day-Lewis. He won this award in 2007 for “There Will Be Blood.” Gere is on his fourth nomination, and won in 2002 for “Chicago.” Phoenix is on his third nomination, and won in 2005 for “Walk the Line.” This is the seventh nomination for Washington, who has won twice before, for “The Hurricane” and “Glory.” Joining them is first-time nominee Hawkes. Only “Lincoln” is nominated for Best Motion Picture – Drama.

Who should win? I’d choose Hawkes, though Gere and Washington were great too.

Who will win? Is there any way that Day-Lewis doesn’t take this?

Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 10th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse

This year’s locks: Lincoln, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook

Very likely: Les Miserables, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Moonrise Kingdom

Possible: Beasts of the Southern Wild, The Master, Skyfall, Flight

Unlikely: The Dark Knight Rises, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Hobbit

The rundown: It frustrates me to no end that there will be between five and ten nominees rather than a finite number. Last year produced nine, and I think this year will be the same. In the past three years, the Producers Guild of America list has matched up 8/9, 9/10, and 8/10. I think that, this year, all but one of the PGA’s choices will make the cut. I’m still nervous about predicting Skyfall for an Oscar nomination, let alone one in the top category, given James Bond’s track record at the Oscar. Instead, I’m predicting eight Golden Globe Best Picture nominees and one new contender, Beasts of the Southern Wild. There’s no way that the top three dramas, Lincoln, Argo, and Zero Dark Thirty won’t get in, and Silver Linings Playbook should as well. I think Les Miserables should be safe, but “Dreamgirls” got snubbed with a similarly strong precursor showing. Django Unchained is in unless voters decide they don’t like Quentin Tarantino anymore, and Life of Pi should be fine if voters don’t take too much issue with the film’s length and script. Moonrise Kingdom is an eclectic choice and would be the first Wes Anderson film to make the top race, but I suspect that it can do it. After that, there’s a slew of contenders with improbable chances. The Master might be right up Oscar voters’ alley, but I think it will have to suffice with acting and screenwriting nominations. Flight will live through Denzel Washington’s performance. The Dark Knight Rises has lost momentum, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, despite its SAG ensemble nomination, is too unserious, and The Hobbit was just too long. The only thing that would make me change my prediction is if anything other than the nine films I’ve picked above gets a DGA nomination on Tuesday.

One possible crazy scenario: Only five films get nominated, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for some of the contenders I’ve indicated doubt for above.

Forecasted winner: I think it’s going to be Zero Dark Thirty in the end.