Oscar Nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

My predictions: 5/5
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

Hello and welcome to my only 100%-correctly-predicted category! This list swapped out “August: Osage County” and “Lone Survivor,” each nominated twice elsewhere, for the WGA-ineligible “Philomena” and “12 Years a Slave.” This is actually a pretty decent list, since whatever my problems with “The Wolf of Wall Street” may have been, the writing was relatively strong. I haven’t seen “Before Midnight,” but it’s good to see at least one film that wasn’t on the rest of Oscar voters’ radar recognized.

My current bet to win: Between “12 Years a Slave” and The Wolf of Wall Street, I pick the latter here.

Oscar Nominees: Best Original Screenplay

My predictions: 4/5, picking “Fruitvale Station” over “Dallas Buyers Club”
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, and Nebraska

This is relatively boring – the exact WGA list in this race. The love for “Dallas Buyers Club” did get a little excessive with a Film Editing mention, but fortunately it didn’t go too far beyond that. “American Hustle” is nominated everywhere, and “Nebraska” did well too. I’m most excited about “Her,” which scored a handful of cool nominations despite missing out on Best Director and any acting awards. I wish we could have had more nominees like that one here, like “Fruitvale Station” any other deserving, more interesting films.

My current bet to win: It’s a battle between Her and “Blue Jasmine.” I pick the former.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Winfrey over Roberts
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyongo (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), June Squibb (Nebraska)

Sorry, Oprah. I guess voters, like the Golden Globes group, didn’t like “The Butler” at all, shutting it out entirely. That makes room for both Roberts and Hawkins, the latter of which I’m happy to see but wish that she had been nominated for “Happy-Go-Lucky” before this. Lawrence joins her entire cast, and Nyongo is also in good company. The best nominee in my mind, Lawrence aside, is Squibb, who truly did deliver a funny and supportive performance. That film earned both a Best Director and Best Cinematography bid, and I’m glad to see it positively recognized in the right places. Nothing more to say here – this category isn’t all that exciting.

My current bet to win: It should still be Lawrence.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Gandolfini over Hill
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

I’m not sure how to feel about Hill’s inclusion here. I didn’t love the film but he was a pretty good part of it. I’m sad that James Gandolfini and “Enough Said” are nowhere to be found. More crucially, Golden Globe and SAG nominee Daniel Bruhl from “Rush” isn’t here, and his film, which I had expected to place in a number of technical categories, was shut out completely. Abdi gets in without his captain, Cooper gets in with his entire cast, and Fassbender and Leto’s films also did quite well. Also not here: Tom Hanks, who missed out on his second shot at what was a once-locked nomination.

My current bet to win: The frontrunner is still Leto.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 3/5, picking Thompson and Exarchupoulos over Adams and Streep
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Amy Adams (American Hustle), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

So much for this category being interesting. I do like Adams but I don’t feel this was one of her strongest performances, even in a David O. Russell film. Her announcement alphabetically first was a signal that the wonderful Adèle Exarchupoulos would likely not join this list, and, predictably, that film was entirely shut out. Blanchett, whose film scored two other nods but missed out for Best Picture, just won the Golden Globe, and she’ll once again face off against Bullock, whose film performed very well. Dench is in decent company with her film, and she may actually have delivered my favorite performance in this group. I’m disappointed to see Streep here since I firmly believe she shouldn’t be nominated for everything, and this was not one of her best. The surprise snub is that of Emma Thompson, who was a sure thing up until now and must now contend with a lone Best Original Score nod for her film.

My current bet to win: This doesn’t change much – probably Blanchett.

Oscar Nominees: Best Actor in a Leading Role

My predictions: 3/5, picking Hanks and Redford over Bale and DiCaprio
My ballot: Come back in February!
The nominees: Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Matthew McConaughey (12 Years a Slave)

I asked for it not to happen, but knew it might. Why is Tom Hanks left off this list for the best performance he’s given in years, and when his film is recognized in Best Picture, Best Supporting, and Best Film Editing (don’t worry, it was also left out of another major category). To make room for Bale hardly seems worth it, since that’s a film that didn’t need all of its players nominated (most may disagree). I’m more okay with DiCaprio being here even if it’s not his best performance, and I’d rather not see him win for this role. Though “12 Years a Slave” is being touted as earning only nine nominations, it only really missed out in a few minor races, and I’m glad Ejiofor earns his first nomination here, along with Golden Globe winner McConaughey, whose film managed to score a place in the top race. That means that Robert Redford, who I’ll see later at the Sundance Film Festival Day 1 Press Conference, isn’t here, and his film earned only measly sound editing nomination. I wasn’t enthralled by the film, but I imagine he’ll be upset about that. My list will look remarkably different, and will certainly include Hanks (and Michael B. Jordan, whose film might as well not have existed.

My current bet to win: It could be DiCaprio or Ejiofor, but looks like McConaughey unless SAG tells us otherwise.

Final Oscar Predictions

Last year, things were all out of whack, with Oscar nominations coming before the Golden Globes. This year, we’ve had the Globes already, and the SAG Awards are still to come, though they didn’t nominate two of the acting winners but they did go nuts for “The Butler.” The films that could go either way in terms of Oscar love are “All is Lost,” “Blue Jasmine,” “The Butler,” “Dallas Buyers Club,” “Inside Llewyn Davis,” “Philomena,” “Rush,” and “Saving Mr. Banks.” The only one in that bunch I’m rooting for is “Rush,” which I think will have to be satisfied with technical recognition. It would make me so happy to see both “Fruitvale Station” and “Blue is the Warmest Color” experience unexpected enthusiasm, including twin nominations for their breakout stars (though a nod in supporting for Lea Séydoux would be wonderful too).

I’m most worried about one major snub that seems all but inevitable, and that’s Tom Hanks. Last year, two surefire bets – John Hawkes and Marion Cotillard – were snubbed. Hanks is in an all but guaranteed Best Picture nominee, and his Somali costar is going to be nominated, so it doesn’t seem fair that he get left out. But given all of the actors nipping at his heels, how could he not? Keep in mind that last year was full of surprises and breakthroughs, and that an 85-year-old and a 9-year-old managed to get nominated without any requisite precursor love. I want those kind of surprises, not “Dallas Buyers Club” for Best Director or Will Forte for Best Supporting Actor.

I’m sure that we’ll have plenty of unexpected developments on Thursday morning, and I’m eager to see what they are, hoping that they’ll be positive. I’m actually headed to Salt Lake City this evening in preparation for the Sundance Film Festival, which also begins tomorrow. I won’t be getting up quite as early as nominations are happening (6:45am in Utah), but I will be writing up analysis by category a couple hours later as usual. In the afternoon, I’m planning to attend the day one press conference at Sundance, where Robert Redford will either be in a really good mood or a really bad mood. For now, here are my final predictions below, and I look forward to the nominations tomorrow with mostly excitement! Click on category headings for full predictions in each race. Chime in below with your thoughts and predictions, and check back tomorrow for plenty of reactions!

No guts, no glory predictions:
Matthew McConaughey for Best Supporting Actor for “Mud”
No Emma Thompson for Best Actress
“Before Midnight” for Best Picture

Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Director
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Spike Jonze (Her)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Robert Redford (All is Lost)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Adèle Exarchupoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color)
Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
James Gandolfini (Enough Said)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyongo (12 Years a Slave)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Oprah Winfrey (The Butler)

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Fruitvale Station
Her
Nebraska

Best Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Cinematography
All is Lost
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush
12 Years a Slave

Best Art Direction
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Inside Llewyn Davis
Rush
12 Years a Slave

Best Costume Design
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
Inside Llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave

Best Film Editing
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
12 Years a Slave

Best Original Score
All is Lost
Gravity
Philomena
Rush
12 Years a Slave

Best Original Song
“Let It Go” (Frozen)
“Young and Beautiful” (The Great Gatsby)
“The Moon Song” (Her)
“Ordinary Love” (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)
“You Don’t Know What It’s Like” (Short Term 12)

Best Sound Argo
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Star Trek Into Darkness

Best Sound Editing
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Rush
Star Trek Into Darkness

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
American Hustle
Dallas Buyers Club
The Great Gatsby

Best Visual Effects
Elysium
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Star Trek Into Darkness

Best Animated Feature
Despicable Me 2
Ernest and Celestine
Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises

Best Documentary Short Film
Facing Fear
Karma Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Recollections

Best Animated Short Film
Get a Horse
Hollow Land
The Missing Scarf
Mr. Hublot
Room on the Broom

Best Live Action Short Film
Diva
Do I Have to Take Care of Everything
Just Before Losing Everything
Record Play
The Voorman Problem

Best Documentary
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
The Square
Stories We Tell
Twenty Feet from Stardom

Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Grandmaster
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Missing Picture

Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 16th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

This year’s locks: 12 Years a Slave, Gravity, American Hustle

Very likely: Captain Phillips, Nebraska, The Wolf of Wall Street, Her

Possible: Inside Llewyn Davis, Saving Mr. Banks, Blue Jasmine, Philomena, Dallas Buyers Club

Unlikely: The Butler, Fruitvale Station, All is Lost

The rundown: It would be so much simpler if there were ten nominees, and even better if there were only five. But, alas, this new system has produced nine nominees two years in a row. The stats for the last four years in terms of matchup with the Producers Guild of America list have been 8/9, 8/9, 9/10, and 8/10. The first ten films I’ve ranked above include just one film not selected by the PGA, but we’ll get there. Let’s start with the locks. 12 Years a Slave and Gravity are the two films to beat, and American Hustle is the one that could do it in the event of a vote-split, though I sincerely hope that’s not the case. Captain Phillips and Nebraska seem pretty solid but could always be the victim of a shocking snub since they’re sure to be rewarded elsewhere. The Wolf of Wall Street and Her should be good too, though they’ll definitely have their detractors. Then we get to the films that weren’t recognized by both the Globes and the PGA. Inside Llewyn Davis should follow the Coen Brothers’ “A Serious Man” in landing a Best Picture bid without a PGA nomination, and it has the benefit of a Golden Globe Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical nomination, which their 2009 film didn’t. Saving Mr. Banks and Blue Jasmine, two films nominated by the Globes exclusively for their leading female performances, scored with the PGA and should prove to have the necessary Oscar appeal, but could just as easily be left off the list. Philomena was a Globe nominee, but that could also be relegated to the Best Actress race and Best Adapted Screenplay races. A nomination here for Dallas Buyers Club, a PGA nominee, would upset me greatly since it doesn’t compare to movies like “The Sessions,” “Beginners,” and “The Last King of Scotland” recognized only for their performances when they were all-around terrific movies worthy of a Best Picture nod too. The last three films that seemed strong from the outset but never quite materialized with the precursors are The Butler, which scored a few SAG nods but fizzled everywhere else, Fruitvale Station, an almost entirely absent film that was amazing and should hopefully astound everyone with multiple nominations on Thursday, and All is Lost, a film that hasn’t even been able to guarantee its star Robert Redford a nomination. We’ll see how it plays out. I’m betting that nine films get nominated again.

One possible crazy scenario: Despite director- and sex-related controversy, Blue is the Warmest Color scores a bid here since it isn’t eligible for Best Foreign Film. How incredible would that be if it actually happened?

Forecasted winner: I’ll bet on 12 Years a Slave.

Oscar Predictions: Best Director

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 16th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Michael Haneke (Amour), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)

This year’s locks: Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Very likely: David O. Russell (American Hustle), Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)

Possible: Spike Jonze (Her), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), Joel and Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis), Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station), Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street), J.C. Chandor (All is Lost)

Unlikely: Plenty of others, I’m sure!

The rundown: Last year, this category threw everyone for a loop by preserving just two of the nominees from the Golden Globe and DGA lists. That’s unlikely to happen again this year, but let’s look at the contenders analytically. Everyone agrees that it’s a battle between Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) and Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity). Neither of them is at risk for being snubbed, especially since both likely garnered a number of votes in recent years for “Shame” and “Children of Men,” respectively, and this would mark their first and very overdue nominations. David O. Russell (American Hustle) is a strong contender because he managed to get nominated in this category without a Globe or DGA bid, and he was nominated for all three back in 2010 for “The Fighter.” Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips), this year’s other Globe- and DGA-nominated director, netted an Oscar nomination only in 2006 for “United 93,” and he should be safe. After that, it’s anyone’s guess. Alexander Payne (Nebraska) was nominated for the fifth Globe spot, while Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street) clinched the DGA nod. Scorsese has been nominated seven times in this race, but two-time nominee Payne’s film is the more evenly-reviewed one this year. Joel and Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis) have earned three Oscar nominations in the past in this category, one of which was done without a Globe or DGA precursor, as would be the case this year. That will film need a serious Oscar boost since guilds haven’t been too enthusiastic about it at all. Two younger directors could upset for their first and second films, respectively: Ryan Coogler (Fruitvale Station) and J.C. Chandor (All is Lost). I’d be ecstatic about the first, but I don’t see it happening at this point. My pick for the fifth slot is a director who made it in without a Best Picture nod in 1999 for “Being John Malkovich” and picked up a subsequent Globe nod in 2002 for “Adaptation.” Spike Jonze (Her) has seen his film do very well this awards season, and in a world where there is no longer a “lone director nominee” since Best Picture includes more than five nominees, he seems like this year’s unexpected choice.

One possible crazy scenario: Oscar voters experience a true case of misdirected enthusiasm and nominate Jean-Marc Vallée (Dallas Buyers Club).

Forecasted winner: Even if Cuaron scores most of the precursors, I think McQueen takes this prize.

Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Film

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 16th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Amour, Kon-Tiki, No, A Royal Affair, War Witch

This year’s contenders: The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium), An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Bosnia and Herzegovina), The Missing Picture (Cambodia), The Hunt (Denmark), Two Lives (Germany), The Grandmaster (Hong Kong), The Notebook (Hungary), The Great Beauty (Italy), Omar (Palestine)

The rundown: This list was winnowed down from seventy-six submissions to nine finalists, five of which will ultimately be nominated. I’ve seen a few of the films that didn’t make the cut after being initially submitted by their countries, the best of which was “The Past” (Iran). It’s a shame that it’s not here. The other ones I have seen are “In Bloom” (Germany), “The Good Road” (India), and “Gloria” (Chile), none of which I’d feel strongly about needing to make the list. “Blue is the Warmest Color” was not submitted by France, and Golden Globe nominee “The Wind Rises” is eligible for Best Animated Feature rather than here. Of the nine, the two frontrunners are both the Golden Globe nominees and the only two films I’ve seen, The Great Beauty (Italy) and The Hunt (Denmark). The latter is available on DVD already, and two other films have already had theatrical runs and will be out on DVD in March shortly after the Oscars: The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium) and The Grandmaster (Hong Kong). Also contending are An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker (Bosnia and Herzegovina), The Missing Picture (Cambodia), Two Lives (Germany), The Notebook (Hungary), Omar (Palestine). It looks like I’ll have the chance to see Palestine’s submission later this month, and I hope to see the others as well. In this category, the director of Palestine’s entry was previously nominated in 2005 for “Paradise Now,” and the director of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s film won in 2001 for “No Man’s Land,” which beat “Amélie.” For country stats, Italy has won most – thirteen times – out of a total of twenty-seven nominations. Denmark has won three times, and has been nominated nine times. Germany has also been nominated nine times, with two wins. Belgium has six nominations (no wins), Bosnia and Herzegovina is one for one, Hong Kong has two nominations (no wins), Hungary has eight nominations (one win), and Palestine was previously nominated as the Palestinian Territories in 2005. Without a Best Picture nominee in the race this year, this category might be more interesting, and I look forward to seeing more of the slate.

One possible crazy scenario: Without having seen most of the contenders, I’d say that a snub for Golden Globe winner The Great Beauty would be almost as surprising as “Volver” and “The Intouchables” being snubbed in the past.

Forecasted winner: “The Great Beauty”

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Ensemble Cast

The competition: American Hustle, August: Osage County, The Butler, Dallas Buyers Club, 12 Years a Slave

For your information: “12 Years a Slave” has three performers nominated individually. “August: Osage County,” “The Butler,” and “Dallas Buyers Club” all have two nominated, and “American Hustle,” despite having four actors nominated for Golden Globes, has just one here.

Who should win: Far and away, this should be “12 Years a Slave.”

Who will win: It could be “12 Years a Slave,” but I think American Hustle will take it.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The competition: Jennifer Lawrence’s diva wife (American Hustle), Lupita Nyongo’s abused slave (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts’ anger-prone daughter (August: Osage County), June Squibb’s sarcastic wife (Nebraska), and Oprah Winfrey’s diva wife (The Butler).

For your information: Lawrence won in the leading race last year for “Silver Linings Playbook,” and was also nominated in 2010 for “Winter’s Bone.” Roberts was nominated once before, and won, for “Erin Brockovich” in 2000. This is the first nomination for Nyongo, Squibb, and Winfrey. All but Squibb are also nominated as part of their ensemble casts.

Who should win: Lawrence or Squibb

Who will win: I think it will be Winfrey.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The competition: Barkhad Abdi’s determined pirate (Captain Phillips), Daniel Bruhl’s confident racer (Rush), Michael Fassbender’s Bible-thumping slave owner (12 Years a Slave), James Gandolfini’s kindhearted bachelor (Enough Said), and Jared Leto’s kindhearted transvestite (Dallas Buyers Club).

For your information: This whole group is pretty new to the SAG universe. Gandolfini won three individual TV trophies for “The Sopranos” as well as a few ensemble prizes. Both Bruhl and Fassbender shared in a SAG prize as part of the ensemble of “Inglourious Basterds.” Both Fassbender and Leto are also nominated as part of their casts.

Who should win: All strong choices. My personal pick would be Bruhl or Fassbender.

Who will win: It should be Leto, unless these actors want to honor Gandolfini.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Cate Blanchett’s disturbed socialite (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock’s panicked astronaut (Gravity), Judi Dench’s kindhearted mother (Philomena), Emma Thompson’s prickly author (Saving Mr. Banks), and Meryl Streep’s pill-popping matriarch (August: Osage County).

For your information: While all of these women are Oscar winners, Thompson has not won a SAG award (these awards weren’t give out when she won her Oscar). She does have one previous individual film bid. In the lead and supporting film categories, this is the ninth nomination for Streep, the eighth for Dench, the seventh for Blanchett, and the second for Bullock. All have won exactly once (Streep won for TV another time too). Only Streep is also nominated as part of her ensemble.

Who should win: Dench or Bullock, though none of these would be my choices.

Who will win: It’s hard to know who the frontrunner will be, but I’d guess Blanchett.

SAG Winner Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

The competition: Bruce Dern’s confused patriarch (Nebraska), Chiwetel Ejiofor’s enslaved free man (12 Years a Slave), Tom Hanks’ courageous captain (Captain Phillips), Matthew McConaughey’s AIDS-stricken drug dealer, and Forest Whitaker’s loyal servant (The Butler).

For your information: This is Hanks’ fourth nomination, and he won on his first try, for “Forrest Gump.” Forest Whitaker was nominated once before and won, for “The Last King of Scotland.” This is the first individual nomination for the other three performers. Ejiofor, McConaughey, and Butler are all nominated as part of their films’ casts.

Who should win: Hanks, Ejiofor, or Dern

Who will win: Maybe McConaughey?

Final Golden Globe Winner Predictions

I’m always excited for the Golden Globes, the first major awards ceremony of the season, and, unlike last year, Oscar nominations haven’t yet come out, so we still have the chance to see some big surprises that won’t actually affect the nominations since ballots are already past due. I'll be tweeting during the show tonight, so follow @movieswithabe!

Last year, Ben Affleck pulled off a win despite his Oscar snub and the fact that Globe voters still chose him before knowing he had been snubbed. This year, there’s no race quite as interesting, though we do have Robert Redford nominated for a Globe with no SAG nomination and Oprah Winfrey out of this race while she will contend next week at the SAG awards, paving the way for another contender to surge ahead in the race. I’m pulling for “Blue is the Warmest Color” to win its Best Foreign Language Film trophy, and I hope “The Great Beauty” can settle for the Oscar win instead of usurping this award too. My one “No guts, no glory” prediction is “Rush” for Best Motion Picture – Drama following a vote split for the top two contenders and a vote of confidence for a film Americans didn’t like as much as foreigners did. Let’s hope for a fun show - check out live reactions via @movieswithabe! Head over to TVwithAbe.com for predictions in all of the TV races, and enjoy the show!

Best Motion Picture - Drama
12 Years a Slave

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
American Hustle

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)

Best Animated Feature Film
Frozen

Best Foreign Language Film
Blue is the Warmest Color

Best Director - Motion Picture
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Her

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Gravity

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
“Let It Go” (Frozen)

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: American Hustle, Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, The Wolf of Wall Street

For your information: Both “American Hustle” and “Nebraska” are nominated for Best Director. “American Hustle” leads with seven nominations. “Nebraska” has five, “Inside Llewyn Davis” and “Her” have three, and “The Wolf of Wall Street” has two. Last year’s winner was “Les Miserables.”

Who should win? “Her”

Who will win? It will likely be American Hustle, but could just as easily be “Inside Llewyn Davis.”

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: Captain Phillips, Gravity, Philomena, Rush, 12 Years a Slave

For your information: All of these films except for “Philomena” are nominated for Best Director as well. “12 Years a Slave” leads with seven nominations. “Captain Phillips” and “Gravity” both have four, “Philomena” has three, and “Rush” has two.

Who should win? Honestly, I rank all of these but “Philomena” pretty much in a row in the second tier of my top 20 of the year. My personal choice is “Rush,” the only one that won’t win, but they’re all great.

Who will win? I guess they might go with 12 Years a Slave over “Gravity,” but it could easily be the other way around. My best guess for an upset is a shocking win for "Rush" if those two split the vote.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition: David O. Russell (American Hustle), Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips), Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), and Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)

For your information: The most-nominated player in this category is actually Payne, who has three previous mentions from the past decade or so. Russell was nominated once, in 2010, for “The Fighter.” The most-nominated films this year are “American Hustle” and “12 Years a Slave.” Four times in the past decade, this award has not matched up with the Best Motion Picture – Drama winner. The only time a comedy won in the past twenty-five years was “Gosford Park” in 2001, and we have two comedy nominees here.

Who should win? Greengrass, but Cuaron and McQueen deserve it too

Who will win? It’s a battle between Cuaron and McQueen. I’ll give the edge to the former.

Movie with Abe: In Bloom (Capsule Review)

In Bloom
Directed by Nana Ekvtimishvili and Simon Groß
Released January 10, 2014

The country of Georgia’s submission for Best Foreign Film is a subtle tale of two young girls striving to be seen as much older and more mature than they actually are, and the way in which that translates into reality in their often dangerous society. Its two protagonists, Eka and Natia, are both vibrant, are both magnetic central figures, and their personalities serve to drive the film’s often slow development into more interesting territory. The film addresses the 1990s political situation in Georgia, and effectively captures the spirit of a discontent people. Its best moments come from its two main characters and their realizations about their lives and the impact that they have on them. The film is occasionally disturbing and at others engaging, and rarely both at the same time. Its title has many layers, but its subject matter isn’t quite as cleverly developed.

B-