Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

Last year’s nominees: Black Swan, Inception, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit

This year’s locks: The Tree of Life, The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo

Very likely: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Possible: War Horse

Unlikely: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Melancholia

The rundown: This category seems set as the five nominees from the American Society of Cinematographers look good as the Oscar frontrunners, all Oscar movies with pretty much undeniable visual qualities. The technical categories look to be where “The Tree of Life” will be rewarded, and so that’s the surest thing of all here. “The Artist,” “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” and “Hugo” are all extremely different and should make the cut, and then it comes down to “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” and “War Horse,” the latter of which may just be Oscar voters’ cup of tea. “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” could rally, but it’s a bit too ordinary in terms of its setting, and I think the ship has sailed for “Melancholia.”

One possible crazy scenario: “The Tree of Life” does not catch on with Oscar voters and misses the cut.

Forecasted winner: “The Tree of Life”

Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

Last year’s nominees: 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

This year’s locks: The Descendants, Moneyball, The Help

Very likely: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo

Possible: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse

Unlikely: The Ides of March, Carnage

The rundown: The WGA list could well translate to the five nominees this year. The three locks listed above are going to be in, and given the positive reception for “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” recently, that seems likely too. “Hugo” is the one film that could be recognized more for its technical achievements than its literary ones. Conventional wisdom would be that if “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” makes it in for Best Picture, it also grabs a spot here, but that’s not necessarily true. “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” is also a strong possibility, and “War Horse” could place here if Oscar voters love it. Golden Globe nominee “The Ides of March” has close to no shot, but perhaps it’s unwise to underestimate it entirely.

One possible crazy scenario: “Drive” proves that Oscar voters have awesome taste by scoring here.

Forecasted winner: “Moneyball”

Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

Last year’s nominees: Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech

This year’s locks: Midnight in Paris, The Artist

Very likely: Young Adult

Possible: 50/50, Win Win, Bridesmaids, Beginners, Margin Call

Unlikely: Martha Marcy May Marlene, Shame

The rundown: Woody Allen is definitely earning his fifteenth nomination in this category, and he’ll be joined by first-time nominee Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist.” After that, it’s anybody’s guess. I’ve ranked the four WGA nominees that joined “Midnight in Paris” after those two, and I do think that “Bridesmaids” will not make the cut. “Win Win,” however small it may have been, seems to be doing well, as does “50/50.” It seems that “Young Adult” will only be recognized for its screenplay, and that “Beginners” will only be noticed for Christopher Plummer’s performance. Both “Martha Marcy May Marlene” and “Shame” needed to make a bigger splash with precursors to have a fighting chance here, and “Margin Call” might be too small a film. I expect one or two big surprises in this category.

One possible crazy scenario: John Michael McDonagh makes the cut for his superb screenplay for “The Guard.”

Forecasted winner: “Midnight in Paris”

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter, Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld, Jacki Weaver

This year’s locks: Octavia Spencer (The Help), Bérénice Bejo (The Artist)

Very likely: Jessica Chastain (The Help), Shailene Woodley (The Descendants), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs)

Possible: Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Carey Mulligan (Shame), Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)

The rundown: This category seems to be set, which means that it’s anything but. Spencer is a sure thing, and I can’t imagine Bejo missing out giving how well her film is likely to do. Chastain is in unless, for some reason, voters choose her two other praised performances this year, but precursors were able to decide on one, so she should be fine. Woodley is a good bet because her film is sure to be embraced by voters, and McTeer will probably get in even if Glenn Close doesn’t. McCarthy would have been much better off had she not missed out on a Globe nod, but watch out for her, since she could still show up. Mulligan and Redgrave, praised as they might be, just haven’t popped up in enough places, and I don’t imagine their films will rank well with Oscar voters.

One possible crazy scenario: Judy Greer makes it in for “The Descendants” instead of Woodley.

Forecasted winner: Spencer

Oscar Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Christian Bale, John Hawkes, Jeremy Renner, Mark Ruffalo, Geoffrey Rush

This year’s locks: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)

Very likely: Albert Brooks (Drive), Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)

Possible: Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life), Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method), Armie Hammer (J. Edgar), Nick Nolte (Warrior)

Unlikely: John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)

The rundown: This category may be wildly unpredictable. Plummer is the only safe bet, though Brooks and Branagh are looking pretty right now. Hill doesn’t seem like the kind of actor who’d be Oscar-nominated, but the film is likely to do very well, so I think he’ll be in. Mortensen, Hammer, and Nolte split Globe and SAG nods, and last year’s nominee Hawkes could get in if voters choose to recognize his film. Pitt is a serious threat to upset given the fact that his film could come from nowhere to earn Oscar recognition despite almost nonexistent guild support, but I think that the fifth slot will go to veteran Von Sydow, who gives a heartwarming performance in a film that, though it’s been slighted thus far, will probably do just fine with Oscar voters.

One possible crazy scenario: “The Ides of March” turns out to be more than just a Globe film, earning nominations for any of the following three: George Clooney, Paul Giamatti, or Philip Seymour Hoffman.

Forecasted winner: Plummer

Final Golden Globe Winner Predictions

Tonight’s ceremony isn’t necessarily going to determine much, but if we see some different names than the ones below, that could shake things up. I’m mainly thinking of anyone besides Octavia Spencer for Best Supporting Actress and Rooney Mara for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama over Meryl Streep. I’m predicting “The Descendants” to take Best Picture and Screenplay, and “Hugo” for Best Director, something which has happened before for Scorsese. “The Artist” could easily sweep it all, and “Midnight in Paris” could do well too. Here are my final predictions for tonight's Golden Globe awards (film categories). Visit TV with Abe for the TV categories. Happy watching, and leave your predictions in the comments section below!

Best Motion Picture - Drama
The Descendants

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
The Artist

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Octavia Spencer (The Help)

Best Animated Feature Film
Rango

Best Foreign Language Film
A Separation

Best Director - Motion Picture
Martin Scorsese (Hugo)

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
The Descendants

Best Original Score - Motion Picture
The Artist

Best Original Song - Motion Picture
“Masterpiece” (W.E.)

Israel Film Festival Spotlight: Restoration

The 21st Annual New York Jewish Film Festival, taking place January 11th-26th, is presented by the Jewish Museum and the Film Society of Lincoln Center. Movies with Abe has the pleasure of offering a look at a number of the films being shown.

Restoration
Directed by Joseph Madmony
Screening January 15th at 6pm and January 16th at 8:45pm

Like many of the other films being presented at the festival this year, this is a family story. It’s an endearing tale of a shop trying to stay open in the wake of the death of one of its owners, whose memory launches the film as the living characters begin to put the pieces back together. The arrival of a new employee leads to the discovery of a piano that may be worth enough to save the business, prompting some unanticipated optimism but also understandable skepticism. “Restoration” has a wonderful music score, which is very beautiful and drives the film, but at the center of the film is a fantastic quiet, melancholy lead performance by Sasson Gabai from “The Band’s Visit.” This is a story about a place and about people, and it’s equally powerful on both fronts.

Saturday Night Movie Recommendations with Abe

Welcome to a weekly feature here at Movies With Abe. I'm going to be providing a handy guide to a few choice movies currently playing in NYC as well as several films newly released on DVD. I’ll also aim to comment on those films I have not yet had the chance to see, and I invite you to add in your thoughts on any films I haven’t seen in the comments below. Understandably, some weeks will have considerably fewer releases to address than others.

Now Playing in NYC

Oscar contender We Need to Talk About Kevin is out at the Angelika and Lincoln Plaza Cinemas today, and I hope to see that sometime next week. Ideally, I’d love to see Contraband, but I think it can way for DVD. I could definitely skip Joyful Noise.

New to DVD

Moneyball (recommended): This sports film gets great performances out of Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill as a general manager and whiz kid, respectively, who team up to try to change how baseball works. It’s an affirming, energizing, and genuinely captivating film, and it’s going to perform very well at the Oscars.

I Am (anti-recommended): This pointless documentary is supposed to showcase the newfound outlook on life possessed by Tom Shadyac after an accident, but I’m not sure why we need to see 76 minutes of the director of “Ace Ventura” and “Liar Liar” randomly piecing together irrelevant and meaningless statistics and ideas.

Oscar Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

Last year’s nominees: Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman, Michelle Williams

This year’s locks: Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Viola Davis (The Help), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

Very likely: Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin)

Possible: Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)

Unlikely: Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene), Kirsten Dunst (Melancholia)

The rundown: Streep and Davis are going to battle this thing out for the win, and the rest of the crew is just along for the ride. Williams is going to be the only returning nominee from last year, and she’ll probably be joined by Globe and SAG nominee Swinton. Close managed to hang out with Globe and SAG mentions as well, but I think she’ll be booted come Oscar time for Rooney Mara, whose film looks like it’s going to go the distance. Once upon a time, Olsen was a sure thing, so that could still happen, but without a SAG boost, it’s not likely. And on the off chance that Oscar voters go nuts for Von Trier, Dunst could be in. Otherwise, don’t expect too much excitement in this category

One possible crazy scenario: Charlize Theron gets noticed for her dry comic turn in Jason Reitman’s “Young Adult.”

Forecasted winner: Streep

Oscar Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role

Last year’s nominees: Javier Bardem, Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, Colin Firth, James Franco

This year’s locks: Jean Dujardin (The Artist), George Clooney (The Descendants), Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Very likely: None

Possible: Michael Fassbender (Shame), Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar), Gary Oldman (Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy), Demian Bichir (A Better Life)

Unlikely: Ryan Gosling (Drive), Michael Shannon (Take Shelter), Woody Harrelson (Rampart)

The rundown: There’s no way that Dujardin, Clooney, and Pitt are missing out. After that, however, it’s anybody’s guess. None of the other actors in this category are likely to have major support for their films in other categories, meaning that it will depend largely on their status as a star or respected performer. Despite his Globe and SAG nominations, DiCaprio is far from a sure thing, and could easily be snubbed. Oldman’s film was highly acclaimed, and Bichir scored a SAG nod. Shannon earned some critical praise, but not enough, and Harrelson’s film has appeared virtually nowhere. I think that Fassbender will be able to snag a slot, but he’s not guaranteed either.

One possible crazy scenario: Ryan Gosling makes it in – for “The Ides of March.”

Forecasted winner: Dujardin

New York Jewish Film Festival Spotlight: Bachelor Days Are Over

The 21st Annual New York Jewish Film Festival, taking place January 11th-26th, is presented by the Jewish Museum and the Film Society of Lincoln Center. Movies with Abe has the pleasure of offering a look at a number of the films being shown.

Bachelor Days Are Over
Directed by Katia Lewkowicz
Screening January 14th at 6:30pm and January 15th at 8:45 pm

This entertaining gem from France follows a groom on the eve of his wedding as he deals with the apparent disappearance of his fiancee and encounters doubt about whether he wants to marry her at all, thanks to his meeting with an enticing new woman and the increasing stress of wild, large families coming together. The film is enjoyable and funny, and highlighted by two supporting performances in particular: the wonderful Emmanuelle Devos (“Wild Grass,” “A Christmas Tale) as his sister Quack-Quack, and Valerie Donzelli, who is anything but what might be expected when she appears. Though its themes might be considered negative in a more serious setting, this movie is an endearing and fun take on love and last-minute jitters, with some excellent musical accompaniment and writing mixed in.

New York Jewish Film Festival Spotlight: Follow Me: The Yoni Netanyahu Story

The 21st Annual New York Jewish Film Festival, taking place January 11th-26th, is presented by the Jewish Museum and the Film Society of Lincoln Center. Movies with Abe has the pleasure of offering a look at a number of the films being shown.

Follow Me: The Yoni Netanyahu Story
Directed by Jonathan Gruber & Ari Daniel Pinchot
Screening January 12th at 8:15pm and January 23rd at 6pm

This biography of the Israeli commander killed in the heroic rescue of Israeli hostages in Entebbe, Uganda is likely the most buzzed-about film being shown at the festival this year. It serves as a comprehensive history of Yoni’s youth and short adult life, interspersed with a timeline of the mission that took his life. In addition to paying tribute to a brave man who died so young, this film is particularly interesting in the present moment for the intimacy it provides with Yoni’s younger brother, Benjamin, who is currently the Prime Minister of Israel. Such a portal into the heart and soul of a sitting public official in a high position of leadership, especially that of the leader of Israel, is extremely rare and affecting. The film as a whole has its slower moments, but ultimately it serves as a fine love letter to a man who barely got to realize his potential as a great and inspiring leader.

New York Jewish Film Festival Spotlight: My Australia

The 21st Annual New York Jewish Film Festival, taking place January 11th-26th, is presented by the Jewish Museum and the Film Society of Lincoln Center. Movies with Abe has the pleasure of offering a look at a number of the films being shown.

My Australia
Directed by Ami Drozd
Screening January 12th at 3:30pm, Jan 19th at 3:30pm, and January 21st at 6:30pm

This light-hearted drama follows ten-year-old Tadek and his older brother as they are uprooted from their naively anti-Semitic roots in 1960s Poland when their mother reveals that she is in fact Jewish, taking them to what she claims is Australia, but is actually Israel. Their journey is hardly a conventional one, and it’s so interesting to see Tadek, played convincingly by actor Jakub Wroblewski in his feature film debut, find himself increasingly drawn to the idyllic kibbutz lifestyle and begin to realize that his preconceived notions may not in fact be universally applicable. It’s not a film that so overtly turns perceptions on their heads, but it’s an endearing and entertaining take on ignorance and the way in which people’s eyes are opened.

New York Jewish Film Festival Spotlight: Mabul

The 21st Annual New York Jewish Film Festival, taking place January 11th-26th, is presented by the Jewish Museum and the Film Society of Lincoln Center. Movies with Abe has the pleasure of offering a look at a number of the films being shown.

Mabul
Directed by Guy Nattiv
Screening January 11th at 1pm, 6pm, and 8:45pm

This Opening Night Selection is a light but layered drama that tells the story of young Yoni, a thirteen-year-old boy desperate to grow up. Preparing to read the portion of Noah on his Bar Mitzvah, Yoni is distracted by taking diet supplements, wanting his voice to change, doing his homework for all of the other kids in school, and the unexpected return of his autistic brother from an institution. “Mabul,” which translates to “The Flood,” is a fun take on the theme of morality and good and bad people, with Yoni as its increasingly endearing protagonist. It’s an enjoyable and affirming tale of one boy’s unlikely and unconventional path to adulthood.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical

The competition: The Artist, Bridesmaids, 50/50, Midnight in Paris, My Week with Marilyn

For your information: “The Artist” is this year’s nominations leader, with six mentions. “Midnight in Paris” is up for four awards, including Woody Allen for Best Director and Best Original Screenplay. This is the seventh Woody Allen film nominated for this award, and two have won before – “Hannah and Her Sisters” and “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.” The other three films are nominated for acting only.

Who should win: “The Artist” is far and away the best of these films, but both “50/50” and “Bridesmaids” were great too

Who will win: I don’t see it being anything but “The Artist,” but “Midnight in Paris” or “Bridesmaids” could upset.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama

The competition: The Descendants, The Help, Hugo, The Ides of March, Moneyball, War Horse

For your information: “The Descendants,” and “The Ides of March” are the only two films nominated for both Best Director and Best Screenplay. “Hugo” scored a directing bid, and “Moneyball” a writing mention. “The Help” has three acting bids, “The Descendants” has two, and “The Descendants” and “The Ides of March” have one apiece. Since 2004, the winner of this category has only gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar once.

Who should win: “Moneyball” or “The Help”

Who will win: I think it’s going to be down to “The Descendants” and “Hugo,” with “The Help” nipping at their heels for an upset. I’ll call it for The Descendants.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Director – Motion Picture

The competition: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Alexander Payne (The Descendants), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), George Clooney (The Ides of March),Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris)

For your information: This is Scorsese’s eighth nomination in this category. HE won for “The Departed” and “Gangs of New York.” Allen has been nominated in this race four times before, Payne twice, and Clooney once. This is the first shot for Hazanavicius, whose film garnered the most total nominations, six, this year.

Who should win: Hazanavicius, though both Allen and Scorsese deserve commendation for their direction as well

Who will win: I think this will go to Scorsese, though Hazanavicius is possible too.

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

The competition: The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius), The Descendants (Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash), The Ides of March (George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon), Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen), Moneyball (Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin)

For your information: This is Allen’s sixth nomination in this category, and he won once, for “The Purple Rose of Cairo” in 1985. Payne has won both times he has been nominated in this category in the past, for penning “Sideways” and “About Schmidt.” Clooney and Heslov were previously nominated for writing “Good Night, and Good Luck.” Zaillian won in 1993 for “Schindler’s List.” Sorkin won last year for “The Social Network” and was nominated three times before that.

Who should win: For writing, probably “Moneyball”

Who will win: It will be tight, but I think that The Descendants will edge out “Midnight in Paris” and “Moneyball”

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Song – Motion Picture

The competition: “Lay Your Head Down” by Sinead O’Connor and Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), “Hello Hello” by Elton John and Bernie Taupin (Gnomeo & Juliet), “The Living Proof” by Mary J. Blige and Thomas Newman (The Help), “The Keeper” by Chris Cornell (Machine Gun Preacher), “Masterpiece” by Madonna (W.E.)

For your information: This is Madonna’s sixth Globe nomination in this category, and she only ever won for acting in “Evita.” John won in this category for “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” from “The Lion King,” and Taupin won for “Brokeback Mountain.” Newman has been nominated once before in this category. Since 2004, the winner of this category has gone on to be snubbed at the Oscars every year except for 2009. In all of those cases, the eventual Oscar winner wasn’t even nominated for a Golden Globe.

Who should win: Not sure I have much of a preference in this list, but they’re all decent picks.

Who will win: I think this will be Madonna’s first win, for a film that will otherwise be totally ignored – “W.E.”

Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Original Score – Motion Picture

The competition: The Artist (Ludovic Bource), The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross), Hugo (Howard Shore), War Horse (John Williams), Abel Korzeniowski (W.E.)

For your information: Reznor and Ross won last year for “The Social Network” in this category. This is Williams’ 23rd Globe nomination and his 19th in this category. He has won four times. This This is Shore’s sixth nomination, and he won in this category in 2004 (for a Martin Scorsese film) and 2005. Bource’s first nomination, and Korzeniowski was nominated in 2009 for “A Single Man.”

Who should win: I haven’t seen or heard “W.E.,” but I love the composer and the other four are great choices. I’d probably go with “The Artist.”

Who will win: Given how much a part of the movie it is, I think voters will choose The Artist.