Last year’s nominees: Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech
This year’s locks: Midnight in Paris, The Artist
Very likely: Young Adult
Possible: 50/50, Win Win, Bridesmaids, Beginners, Margin Call
Unlikely: Martha Marcy May Marlene, Shame
The rundown: Woody Allen is definitely earning his fifteenth nomination in this category, and he’ll be joined by first-time nominee Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist.” After that, it’s anybody’s guess. I’ve ranked the four WGA nominees that joined “Midnight in Paris” after those two, and I do think that “Bridesmaids” will not make the cut. “Win Win,” however small it may have been, seems to be doing well, as does “50/50.” It seems that “Young Adult” will only be recognized for its screenplay, and that “Beginners” will only be noticed for Christopher Plummer’s performance. Both “Martha Marcy May Marlene” and “Shame” needed to make a bigger splash with precursors to have a fighting chance here, and “Margin Call” might be too small a film. I expect one or two big surprises in this category.
One possible crazy scenario: John Michael McDonagh makes the cut for his superb screenplay for “The Guard.”
Forecasted winner: “Midnight in Paris”