Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Monday, January 13th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories.

Last year’s nominees: Cold War, The Favourite, Never Look Away, Roma, A Star is Born

This year’s locks: 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Very likely: The Irishman, Joker

Possible: The Lighthouse, Ford v Ferrari, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Parasite, Little Women, Jojo Rabbit

The rundown: The American Society of Cinematographers list is the best framework for predicting this list, matching entirely two years ago and four for five last year. 1917 is a sure thing, as is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I imagine that both The Irishman and Joker are safe too, though I’m less certain about the fifth nominee, Ford v Ferrari, which has been performing somewhat inconsistently across awards bodies this season but could easily merit a place here on the Oscar ballot. The ASC also includes a spotlight category with three nominees. While I’d be shocked if either independent darling Honey Boy or Colombia’s International Feature submission Monos was cited, The Lighthouse seems like a far more probable contender. Given that last year featured three foreign films nominated here, I’d expect some passion for Portrait of a Lady on Fire and Parasite, but I don’t know that it will happen. Little Women and Jojo Rabbit are also possible, but this category feels more firmed up.

One possible crazy scenario: A film cited on both the Documentary and International Feature shortlists, Honeyland, becomes the first documentary honored in this race.

Forecasted winner: This seems set to go to 1917.