Golden Globe Winner Predictions: Best Motion Picture – Drama
The competition: A marine gets to know an alien race in the future in “Avatar,” a bomb squad operates in Iraq in “The Hurt Locker,” a group of Jewish soldiers kill Nazis in “Inglourious Basterds,” an underprivileged high school girl tries to escape from her life in “Precious,” and a traveling employee gets grounded in “Up in the Air.”
For your information: Before last year, when “Slumdog Millionaire” won both the Globe and the Oscar, serious films like “The Aviator,” “Brokeback Mountain,” “Babel,” and “Atonement” have triumphed over more enjoyable eventual Oscar winners “Million Dollar Baby,” “Crash,” “The Departed,” and “No Country for Old Men.” Since 1964, the winner of this award has gone on to be nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture. The only film not nominated for Best Director here is "Precious."
Who should win: “Inglourious Basterds”
Who will win: Tough call, but I think it goes to The Hurt Locker over “Avatar” in a squeaker.
2 comments:
Abe, Lee Daniels isn't nominated for Best Director. Clint Eastwood is in his place. You're probably thinking about the DGA nominees (in that case, yes, these five are nominated) but not in the Globes. Also, something I've noticed. Except for two times in the last decade, the winner in this category is the one with the most nominations (even if they only win one or two awards) and the two years that didn't happen, it was The Lord of the Rigs: The Return of the King and Slumdog Millionaire, both of which won all four awards they were nominated for.
So, I'll say that unless Avatar wins all four awards it's nominated for, this one goes to Up in the Air (since it has six nominations, the mose of this list). The Hurt Locker is too small for this branch, so I think it might sit this one out (and come back stronger for the Guilds).
Thanks for catching that. I was copying and pasting from my predictions from last year, and forgot to take that out.
Interesting trend - the two years mentioned are also the only two recently that have really been locks for Best Picture since before any awards took place.
I really don't know what is going to win this year for all these awards. Last year, I predicted "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" over "Slumdog Millionaire" due to the way this category has gone recently. We'll see what happens. Either way, I'm looking forward to this race, and if anything besides "Precious" wins, I'll be happy.
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